I believe that regular users (i.e., non-developers) are unlikely to start using Linux on the desktop until they can get it pre-installed. The reality is that all OS upgrades are a nightmare. Lots of people had horrible failures when trying to upgrade from XP to Vista, and even the Tiger to Leopard upgrade on OS X required many users to reformat their hard drives. Given that Linux is a completely independent OS (and, unlike OS X, needs to work across a wide range of hardware), it’s no surprise that upgrading to Linux is so (deservedl) daunting.
That’s why I’m excited about news about the new “tweener” category of mini-laptops coming pre-installed with Linux, such as this article about Acer.
Roberto Di Cosmo | 03-Sep-09 at 4:29 am | Permalink
I strongly agree: upgrades are extremely difficult operations (their complexity is NP complete at best), and one should not confront new users upfront with its intricacies.
Nonetheless, the problem of upgrades is real, and will only get worse with time, so it needs to be adressed scientifically. You may want to look at what the Mancoosi project is doing in this area (http://www.mancoosi.org).